Ok I think I've figured it out. I'd forgotten inexperienced troops get -1 to hit.
However, I think I like the idea of a single inexperienced vehicle at 500pts. Flammpanzer 38(t) is only 108pts (which is about the same as a panzershreck, or a small squad) and a puma is only 128pts. Being armored enough they can't get pins from small arms, the medium armor of a Flammpanzer and the recon ability of a puma both help to keep them alive.
HQ: Officer and Dude with Assault rifles
: NCO w/ Assault Rifle, 1x Assault Rifle, 1x SMG, 3x rifles, 1x LMG, 1 loader
FJ plt(6): NCO w/ rifle, 1x LMG, 1 loader, 3x Rifles
To take the Puma drop Sniper to regular and a single Assault rifle.